business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research

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This report is also available as a PDF file. The Committee met in response to growing evidence that the economy may have reached a cyclical peak in recent months and entered a recession at that point. The Committee concluded that the evidence is not sufficiently strong at this time to determine whether or not a recession has begun or, if so, business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research identify the cyclical peak. Some of the reasons for the Committee's caution were: 1 The conflict between the small decline in the Federal Reserve industrial production index and the much larger decline in gross national product in constant dollars. Historically, the NBER's first announcement of a peak and on-set of a recession occurs only when the evidence about the actual behavior of the economy becomes available for a long enough period to resolve the ambiguities created by special events. The Committee has scheduled another meeting for late October. Development of the American Economy.

The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates months and quarters of U. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the s lasted months. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.

This report is also available as a PDF file. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of and , both of which lasted 16 months.
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This report is also available as a PDF file. The current U. The committee business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research that the various indicators of economic activity normally used to determine the month of the business cycle peak were generally flat during the summer of Each of the major indicators reached a peak in a different month. During the summer, the month-to-month changes in these indicators were small. Nonfarm payroll employment reached a peak in June. Real personal income peaked in July. Real manufacturing and trade sales pealced in August. The index of industrial production peaked in September.

This report is also available as a PDF file. The trough signifies both the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery or business expansion. NBER President Eli Shapiro, who was unable to attend the committee's business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research, reviewed the minutes before releasing this statement. In reaching the judgement that an economic expansion was under way, the committee noted that output and sales in the United States have by now either nearly reached or exceeded levels they had achieved before the onset of the recent recession. For example, real gross national product in the first quarter of this year was only 1.

This report is also available as a PDF file. Earlier indications of. Although forecasters are now virtually unanimous in predicting a recession in early ,the Committee's judgments in identifying turning points are based only on actual data not on forecasts. The Committee deferred identifying a peak in the current U. Some of the considerations underlying the Committee's decision are the following: 1 early indications are that real GNP has risen in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter; 2 reported declines in industrial production so far are quite small; 3 employment is continuing to rise and unemployment is still just above its recent low of 5. The Committee plans to meet again in March or April. Development of the American Economy.
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